Ball or Lacy? The Case For Montee Ball

If you’re a Broncos fan, you’re certainly familiar with the narrative, in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos selected Montee Ball with the 58^th overall selection of the draft, passing on Eddie Lacy, who was drafted by the Packers with pick 61. At first glance, the choice of Ball over Lacy looks like a no-brainer, when examining both backs’ college statistics. Eddie Lacy racked up 2740 total yards and 32 TDs in his three seasons in Alabama, while Ball doubled both of those totals, amassing 5738 total yards and 83 TDs in his four seasons spent as the starting back for the Wisconsin Badgers. Regardless of his collegiate statistical advantages, there have been questions about whether or not the Broncos made the right selection in Ball, questions that get louder and louder with the continued success of Lacy as the Packers lead back, while Ball splits time in the Broncos backfield with Knowshon Moreno. While the reasoning behind these questions is understandable, they are not fair to ask at this point in both young backs’ careers, and they are far from being answered; one thing is for sure though, Montee Ball has shown equal signs of a promising career in the NFL as Lacy has.

            The primary reason that these questions are unfair is simply the workload and the situations that both backs are in. Eddie Lacy earned the starting role out of training camp in Green Bay, and was immediately given a heavy workload in the opening weeks of the season; since the start of the 2013 season, when healthy, Lacy has seen less than fifteen touches just once. In addition to Lacy getting starter snaps from the beginning of the season, the Packers began to rely much more heavily on the rookie when star quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, went down with a broken collarbone in Week 8; since then, the Pack have given Lacy an average of 19 carries per game and he’s been a valuable safety net for the backup QBs, hauling in 19 of his 31 grabs over the past seven weeks. On the other side of the spectrum, Montee Ball started the 2013 season in a battle with two talented backs, Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman, who each had a full season of learning Peyton Manning’s complicated offense under their belts. Moreno won the starting job, and has managed to hold onto it due to strong quarterback protection and passionate rushing performances; however, Ball has managed to be an effective change-up back and has provided some solid pass protection as of late. In addition to that, Ball has shown some real explosiveness and an ability to run at the NFL level in the action that he has seen. Anyone who watched the Broncos’ Week 11 matchup against the Chiefs, where Montee put up 117 yards in just 13 carries can see the potential that Ball has as a runner. Clearly, the sheer quantity of opportunities that Lacy has been given gives him an advantage over Ball, prompting people to unfairly suggest that he is the better back; statements that become more absurd when looking at the numbers that the two backs have respectively managed.

           

	Rush Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Attempt	Attempts/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	455	32.5	4.3	7.6	4
Eddie Lacy	1028	79.1	4.1	19.1	8

            Simply observing the two backs’ rushing statistics reveals an obviously heavier workload for Lacy, resulting in more yards, yards per game, attempts per game, and touchdowns; however, Ball has actually averaged more yards per attempt, suggesting that he would have similar numbers to Lacy if given more opportunities. The Broncos and Packers run similar offenses, the Broncos averaging 41.6 (58%) pass attempts and 29.6 (42%) rushing attempts per game, while the Packers average 35.1 (55%) pass attempts and 28.2 (45%) rushing attempts per game, which makes the two teams easy to compare. If Montee Ball were to maintain his 4.3 yards per attempt, as well as his 26.5 carries per touchdown, and was given the same percentage of the load of work in Denver that Eddie Lacy receives in Green Bay (62.7%), rather than playing second fiddle to Knowshon Moreno, the first-year back’s pro-rated stats alongside Eddie Lacy’s numbers would look as follows:

	Rush Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Attempt	Attempts/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	1114	79.6	4.3	18.5	9
Eddie Lacy	1028	79.1	4.1	19.1	8

            With 62.7% of the Broncos’ rushing workload, Montee Ball would receive approximately 260 carries, which yield the numbers in the above table. With an equal workload to Lacy, Ball’s pro-rated statistics indicate that the rookie back out of Wisconsin would have equal, if not better numbers than Eddie Lacy. The Packers’ and Broncos’ offensive lines appear to be equally talented, with the 10th and 1lth ranked rush offensive lines respectively per Football Outsiders, meaning that this would not be a factor in production between the two. When you look at more advanced statistics regarding the two backs, like the one below, it reveals that Montee Ball have a higher first down rate on his carries, as well as a higher TD rate. Additionally, you see that Ball has had a slightly harder time holding onto the ball (which got him into the early season doghouse), but you also see that both backs have provided excellent quarterback protection with 0% sack rates.

	First Down Rate (Rush)	TD Rate	Fumble Rate	30+ Yd Rushes	Sack Rate
Montee Ball	26.7%	3.8%	1.9%	1	0%
Eddie Lacy	22.2%	3.2%	0.4%	3	0%

In addition to showing similar talent in rushing and pass protection, Montee Ball and Eddie Lacy have very similar receiving numbers out of the back field, with Ball averaging half the catches as Lacy, and exactly half the yards. Again, if the numbers that Ball has put up were pro-rated using the same workload as Lacy, it can be seen that the Badger alum would have eerily similar numbers to those of Lacy.

	Rec. Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Catch	Catches/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	123	8.8	7.2	1.2	0
Eddie Lacy	236	18.2	7.6	2.4	0

            Eddie Lacy’s has 31 total receptions this year, giving him 9.70% of Green Bay’s passing completions. If Montee Ball were to have an equal portion of the Broncos’ pass completions, he would have approximately 31 as well (30.846), which would give him pro-rated receiving stats as follows (assuming he continued to average 7.2 yards per catch):

	Rec. Yards	Yards/Game	Yards/Catch	Catches/Game	TDs
Montee Ball	222	15.9	7.2	2.2	0
Eddie Lacy	236	18.2	7.6	2.4	0

            While clearly these numbers are built upon the assumption that Ball would maintain his average numbers across the same amount of work as Lacy, it appears as though the backs have shown similar promise for each of their teams in the play that they’ve been given. There is no question that both running backs are going to be premier players for their teams in the NFL in years to come, Lacy simply has been given the opportunity to do so early in his career. Meanwhile, Montee Ball is stuck behind Knowshon Moreno, who is having a huge breakout year for the Broncos, and is arguably the Broncos’ MVP behind Peyton Manning. It’s safe to say that even if the Broncos had drafted Lacy, he would probably be playing a secondary role to Moreno, who still would have had the advantage of knowing the pass-protection schemes and the intricate play calls of Peyton Manning from the start of the season. The Broncos will be in an interesting position in the offseason, when Moreno becomes an unrestricted free agent. Denver will have to choose between keeping Moreno at a much higher price, now that he has proven he can be a number one back, or cut ties with Moreno and hand the reins to Montee Ball, who appears to be the future franchise back. While I love the passion and play of Knowshon, if the price were too high to keep him around, I have no doubt that Montee Ball could come in and do exactly what everyone hoped he could when the Broncos drafted him, and assume the role of the every down back. While it is yet to be seen who the better running back will be, these players are both unquestionably talented players, and at this point, the only thing that separates them is a greater chance for Lacy to put his talents on display; don’t let the added reps fool you into thinking that Lacy would have been the better draft choice. 

Looking Forward: Broncos (6-1) vs. Redskins (2-4)

Last Week:  The Broncos are coming off of a 39-33 loss to the Indianapolis Colts at the "House That Peyton Built." Unfortunately, Peyton's return to Indy was a disappointing loss to a strong AFC contender, but may have been a wake-up call for Denver. Read my thoughts on last week's game here.

The Opposing Team: The Washington Redskins are coming out of a shootout game, in which they narrowly beat Josh McCown (yes, Josh McCown) and the Chicago Bears 45-41. Washington had high hopes coming into the 2013 season, with RGIII in his second season at quarterback. However, Griffin and the 'Skins are sitting at a disappointing 2-4 record. However, Griffin seems to be on his way back to regular form, rushing for 84 yards in the win last week (more than he's rushed for since Week 10 of the 2012 season).

Interesting Fact of the Week: With a win this week, the Denver Broncos would sweep the NFC East, with prior wins against the Giants, Eagles, and Cowboys. The last season that the Broncos played all four NFC East teams (2009), they only managed a 2-2 record.

Things to Watch: 

Peyton Manning

It was announced on Wednesday that Manning, along with a few other veteran players, was not practicing with the rest of the team. It turns out that Manning is simply nursing a slight ankle injury, and is fully expected to play in Sunday's game. Look for Peyton to have a bounce-back game against the Redskins, provided that he is healthy. In his career, he is 14-5-0 against teams from the NFC East (3-1-0 against the Redskins). Not only is this record fantastic, but so are Manning's combined stats in these games: 102.6 QBR, 67.73% completion percentage, 292.5 passing yards per game (most against any division), and 2.32 TDs per game. Hopefully, Manning will be given more time in the pocket this week, as compared to last week, where he was hit 13 times. Unfortunately, Orlando Franklin did not practice Wednesday, and is doubtful to play Sunday, which means that Manning could be in for another long day if the rest of the line cannot compensate for the loss of their starting right tackle. Conversely, the Redskins have the 28th overall defense in the league, and only the 23rd ranked pass rush (Football Outsiders), as opposed to the Colts, who rank 12th and 7th in those categories respectively.

Demaryius Thomas vs. Deangelo Hall

It's always a treat getting to watch a great wide-receiver line up opposite one of the leagues most talented corners. DeAngelo Hall will likely be stuck with the task of covering the Broncos most explosive receiver, Demaryius Thomas on Sunday. While Calvin Johnson is undoubtedly the number one receiver in the league, Thomas is definitely not far behind in talent, and plays a similar style of game to Megatron. Johnson was able to scorch Hall in their Week 3 matchup, posting 115 yards on 7 catches, with one touchdown. Conversely, Dez Bryant, a receiver who is very similar in talent to Thomas, was only able to notch 5 receptions for 36 yards against the Redskins in Week 5. It could be argued that the Cowboys have less weapons than the Broncos in the passing game, which may have accounted for the lack of production from Bryant, who was manned-up all day. It will be interesting to see if the Broncos are able to utilize DT more than they did last week, and who gets the better of who in this intriguing one-on-one matchup.

Mike Shanahan's Return to Denver

This week will be the first time that long-time Broncos' head coach, turned Washington head-coach will be returning to Mile High with his new team. Shanahan had a long, successful career in Denver, before being fired in the 2008 season, following three straight seasons without reaching the playoffs. In his 224-game career with the Broncos, Shanahan led the team to a 138-86-0 record and back-to-back Super Bowls in 1997/1998 (with current Broncos VP John Elway at quarterback). The Broncos reached the playoffs in 7 of Shanahan's 14 seasons at the helm, posting a .616 winning percentage. Before this Sunday's game, the team will honour their former coach with a video presentation after the Redskin players are introduced. This return will not be quite as heralded as the Manning return to Indy last week, but it is always special to honour someone who has had such an impact on a franchise. I know for one, that I had a lot of respect for Shanahan during his time in Denver, and I was actually upset when he was fired. Strategy-wise, Shanahan's return to Denver will not require a great deal of adjustments, as it's been 5 years since his departure, and much of the system established under his tenure with the Broncos has been overhauled. Additionally, it would appear that Denver has an advantage heading into this game. Peyton Manning holds a 7-1-0 record when facing teams coached by Mike Shanahan (excluding the final game of the '05 season, where he threw two pass attempts before leaving a game that the Colts would eventually lose).

 Von Miller 

Miller got off to a bit of a rusty start to his 2013 season, after his return to the lineup was talked about a great deal throughout the week leading up to the game. To Miller's credit, he has not participated in drills involving physical contact for six weeks, and this clearly showed in the first game. With two weeks of practice and a complete game under his belt, look for one of the league's most exciting defensive players to have a bounce-back game to his usual form. Getting to the quarterback won't be easy though, as Washington has the 11th ranked pass protection offensive line, according to Football Outsiders. However, Miller hasn't gone two straight games without a sack since Weeks 3 and 4 of last season against Houston and Oakland, and should be much quicker this week after getting additional practice time.

Wesley Woodyard

Wes Woodyard practiced in full on Wednesday for the Broncos, and is expected to make his return to the lineup this week. Woodyard was definitely missed in the Colts game, both in his play and leadership on the field. The 6-year pro, who Mike Shanahan coincidentally signed as an undrafted free agent enters play with 19 solo tackles, 1.5 sacks, and 2 pass-defenses. The speedy linebacker, who has great horizontal speed and awareness, will be an integral part of containing Robert Griffin's option game. Woodyard played a large part in containing Raiders' QB, Terrelle Pryor, during the Broncos' Week 3 game, and will be an integral part in stopping RGIII this week.

RGIII

While Robert Griffin has gotten off to a not-so-spectacular start to his sophomore season, coming off ACL surgery, he has seemed to regain some of his rookie form in the past couple weeks, particularly on the ground. Griffin rushed for 84 yards in last week's win over the Bears, something he hasn't done since Week 10 of last season against the Giants. The Broncos' team of versatile linebackers will have their hands full trying to contain the speedy quarterback. However, as mentioned above, the Broncos held similarly-versatile quarterback, Terrelle Pryor, to 36 yards. Denver essentially eliminated all of Pryor's opportunities to run, so much so that he only attempted to carry the ball four times over the course of that game. RGIII is definitely more talented than Pryor, but I think that the Broncos have the right composition on defense to slow his run game down drastically.

Pass defense

While the Broncos can likely shut down the Redskins rush game, as they have to teams all season, they may struggle again against the pass, with Champ Bailey set to miss this game against his former team (5 seasons, 18 INT, 292 tackles). With Bailey out of the lineup, the Broncos will rely on a very young secondary (mean age of 24.5 years old) to contain a talented group of receivers and an offensive line who generally provides their quarterback with time to throw. The key to shutting down the passing game will be 1) an increased efficiency in pass rushing, which Von Miller can hopefully provide; 2) the containment of Pierre Garcon by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie; and 3) the continued impressive work of the rookie Kayvon Webster, who will have an expanded role in this game with Champ out.

Broncos' running backs

Much has been made of the Ronnie Hillman fumble this week, and rightly-so. Hillman lost a fumble on what was possibly the most crucial offensive drive of the game for the Broncos. The second-year back out of San Diego State was surrounded with concerns of fumbling in his college career, and clearly this is still an issue for him. Hillman is an explosive back, likely the most explosive of the Broncos' runners. However, don't look for him to get many carries in the near future after last weeks gaffe. Look for Montee Ball to have an expanded role in this game, if Denver gets a lead. Ball will likely be given the late-game carries that Hillman has received in other games where the Broncos lead late.

Knowshon Moreno also had a rough game against the Colts' physical defense, behind a depleted offensive line. After only managing 40 yards on 15 carries in last weeks game, Moreno will look to bounce back to form this week. Through the 2013 season, he has averaged 59 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards per game, along with 8 TDs. In his fifth season, Moreno appears to finally be slightly justifying the first-round pick that the Broncos used on him in 2009 out of Georgia. The former member of the Bulldogs has also proven to be the most effective pass blocker of the Broncos' backs this season, enough reason to start him alone, based on the importance of keeping Peyton Manning healthy. I'd look for Moreno to have a big game on the ground this week, against a Washington defense that has allowed over 200 yards on the ground in their last two games.

Conclusion: The Broncos seem to have a favourable matchup in the 2-4 Redskins, as long as they can contain the versatile quarterback, Robert Griffin. Both the running and passing game should see success against a weak Redskins defense, and I fully expect both Peyton and Knowshon to bounce back from relatively weak Week 7 performances. Having a fully healthy linebacking corps this week should give the Broncos a much-needed improvement in their pass-rush, which will be important to minimize the time that their young secondary will have to maintain coverage. I expect a shoot-out in Denver, with the Broncos finding their winning ways again, while Washington slowly slips out of contention in the weak NFC East.

In Retrospect: Broncos (6-1) 33, Colts (5-2) 39

Sunday night's Broncos defeat at the hand of the Indianapolis Colts was a tough one to swallow. From the get-go, I had a bad feeling about the way the game was headed, and that bad feeling really didn't leave all game. Sure, I have a lot of faith in Peyton Manning and the Broncos loaded offense, so I wasn't necessarily worried about them not having the talent to fight back when they got down. Rather, every time Denver had the ball on Sunday night, something just didn't feel like it should when the number one team in the league has the ball. Here are some of the things that went through my head, both while watching the game, and while reflecting on it today.

1. There was a point in the second quarter, I think it might have been after the hit that Peyton took from Robert Mathis, that I began to notice what seemed like a loss of confidence in the pocket from Manning. From that point on, even though Manning still managed to complete some nice passes, he did not look comfortable in the pocket, and every time he dropped back, #18 seemed to have happy-feet in the pocket. 

2. Looking back at the game, as well as the stat-line, it's no wonder Manning was having a hard time standing in the pocket. In the matchup against the Colts, the Broncos' offensive line allowed one less sack (4) and 3 more quarterback hits (13) than they had over the entire rest of the season. Clearly, the loss of Orlando Franklin at tackle was a big one; getting Franklin back in the lineup soon will be key to protecting Manning and giving him time to complete passes. Related to this, it appears Franklin has been an integral part of the Broncos' revamped run game this season, as it too looked rather dismal Sunday night. 

3. For some reason, in Sunday night's game the Broncos offense had a stubborn persistence in trying to establish a run game that quite clearly was not there. Two frustrating situations arose due to this stubbornness on the Broncos' part. Firstly, the offense would line up and hand the ball off to Knowshon Moreno on first and second down, for essentially no gain (Moreno averaged less than three yards per carry), and then be forced into a third-and-long situation, limiting their options and allowing the Colts defense to key in on a few specific plays. Secondly, when Denver had two third-and-short plays in the first quarter, rather than putting the ball in the hands of their best playmaker, Peyton Manning, they opted to hand the ball off and squander two chances to extend drives with a Moreno run up the middle for no gain. Likely, the Broncos were trying to establish a run game to bring the safeties down in the box and open up deeper passes on play-action. However, when your run game is ineffective, there is no need to bring an extra defender down in the box. Simply put, I'm surprised that the Broncos didn't abandon the run MUCH sooner than they did. 

4.  Speaking of running backs, Ronnie Hillman is sadly making a name for himself as a back who can't hang onto the football. Hillman fumbled the ball late in the game, inside the five-yard line, when the Broncos had a legitimate chance to move within a single score of the Colts. The fumble marred what were a few nice, explosive runs by the young back, who was inserted into the game when it became apparent that Moreno was having little success. Unfortunately, this has been the story with Hillman since he was drafted by the Broncos; quick explosive plays, counterbalanced by untimely fumbles. This spells bad news for Hillman, as I doubt this is a trade-off that the coaching staff are going to accept for much longer, if at all. 

5. Von Miller's much-awaited return to the Broncos defense was rather unflattering and disappointing. Despite adding 10 pounds of muscle in the off-season, Miller had a tough time getting to the quarterback, while managing one tackle in the backfield on a run play. In all, Miller managed just two tackles in his return. I don't think that this slow first game from Miller is a reason for concern. A likely couple reasons for the third year defender's first game struggles was his lack of participation in physical contact for the last six weeks, as well as the added attention he garnered from the leagues best offensive line in pass protection. I'd look for him to bounce back this week against a Redskins team, whose offensive line is ranked 10th in pass protection and 19th in run blocking (Football Outsiders). 

6. Some people are using this game as "proof" that Andrew Luck is a better quarterback than Peyton Manning. This idea is absolutely absurd. No, Andrew Luck is neither a better quarterback than Peyton Manning is at this point in his career, not to mention the fact that Peyton has been this good for a very long time. I'm not denying that Andrew Luck is the real deal and a great quarterback, but I refuse to believe that he will have a better career than Peyton Manning or that he is better at this moment. Sunday night's final result boils down to the fact that Luck's team got the job done around him, specifically on defense, and Peyton's didn't. Jim Irsay must be smiling smugly somewhere (or tweeting with the grammar of a grade six child). 

7. Overall, I think that the loss to the Colts may have been needed by the Broncos. Yes, it does set them back a game to the Chiefs in the AFC West, but even in the Jacksonville game in Week 6, the Broncos looked a little complacent and a lot slower than they had all season before that. A loss to another AFC contender may have been what it took to wake the Broncos up before heading into a tough stretch of schedule, where they'll face the Redskins, Chargers, Chiefs twice, and Patriots.